Leadıng ındıcators of 2008 global crısıs: An analysıs wıth logıt and mars methods
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This study aims to determine the leading indicators of the global mortgage crisis occurred in USA in 2008. Within this scope, we used 14 explanatory variables in order to understand the determinants of this crisis. Moreover, annual data for the periods between 1984 and 2014 was analyzed by using MARS and logit models so as to achieve this objective. As a result of the analysis, it was identified that non-performing loans and bank derivatives are the main indicators of this crisis according to MARS method. On the other hand, the amount of total assets and non-performing loans are significant reasons of the crisis with respect to the analysis of logit method. Another result of this study is that MARS method is more successful than logit method in order to predict the crisis.